International IB Newsletter

Upheaveal in Ukraine

Kyle Alfaro April 2014

 

Upheaval in Ukraine and Crisis in the Crimea By: Kyle Alfaro The people protesting, demanding reforms, a break away from Russian influence, Russia flexing muscle much to the chagrin of the United States- all too familiar; except this isn’t Prague 1968 or another development of the Cold War. In fact the Cold War is a little over 30 years over. However under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin the former USSR has grown into a regional power with global ambitions- and Putin might be crazy (or bold) enough to try and carry out his vision for a new Imperial Russia that would make Peter the Great swoon. The Euromaiden Protests which began on the 21st of November in 2013 as simple protests over perceived Russian influence in the Presidential decision to back out of EU integration and instead developing closer trading ties with Russia. The protests started, mostly in the capital of Kiev, when President Yanukovych rejected an expected deal for greater economic integration with the European Union. Furthermore the divide in Ukraine has proved larger than one would guess- a near complete East/ West divide of pro Europe or pro Russia factions stemming from geographical proximity and cultural roots of population. The deal was popular with Ukrainians, particularly in Kiev and surrounding countryside.

 

However, this is about much more than just a trade deal. Symbolically, Yanukovych's decision was seen as a turn away from Europe and toward Moscow, which rewarded Ukraine with a "stimulus" worth billions of dollars and a promise of cheaper gas exports. Moscow had subjugated or outright ruled Ukraine for generations, so this has struck nerve with the elder generation who remembers the transition to independence. But this proves more than just geopolitics. Yanukovych’s and his government, since taking power in 2010, have mismanaged the economy and have been increasingly perceived as corrupt. In 2004, there had been mass protests against Yanukovych when he won the presidential election under widespread suspicions of fraud (akin to Putin’s third re-election in 2012); those protests, which succeeded in blocking him from office, was dubbed the "Orange Revolution" and considered a major event in Eastern Europe at the time. However, he has since returned. Flash forward. Months of protest and calls for government action and violence in Kiev- the burning of Independence Square in an attempt to barricade the revolution with fire from the government troops, and President Yanukovych’s flight from power we have seen a crisis in the Crimea.

 

Yanukovych tried to appease the people with cabinet level resignations and concessions- such as granting amnesty to protestors, however not fully rescinding the anti-protest laws. Just after civil war seemed averted with a new government and President in Ukraine, the deluge unfolded even more this time drawing in an opportunistic Russia- who former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton compared to Adolph Hitler while condemning the Putin administration’s actions (Putin was quick to counter with US intervention in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lybia). Since Tsar Peter the Great, every Russian leader has harbored desires to take control or maintain control over the Crimea- a strategic location as it has proved the only warm water port for Russia and is home to the Russian Black Sea fleet. Indeed, Tsar Nicholas II and Joseph Stalin maintained summer residences in the Crimea, Putin handpicked Sochi (within the vicinity) to host his prized Olympic games. The geopolitical and cultural importance of the Crimea proves as big as Putin’s ambitions.

 

The Crimea is composed of a largely Russian ethnic concentration (Stalin had non-Russians moved to the interior) which sides with President Yanukovych and President Putin of Russia. After the quarrel in Kiev settled, the people of the Crimea stated they wished to join Russia and did not want to be a part of the new government. The drama unfolded when a Ukrainian admiral defected to the Russian camp. At present Putin has mobilized troops along the border with threats to intervene and ‘protect all Russian speaking peoples’ (Mrs. Clinton used this quote to allude to Hitler’s claim of protecting ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland). Russia has ordered the Crimea raise the white flag or it would intervene. The United Kingdom, France, United States, and the UN have admonished this action and have accused Putin of exacerbating the situation. Cold War tensions once again play out in the world stage- on the other hand the inevitable questions arise: should the US intervene? After two decades long wars and global resentment towards police action, the US is finding it harder to champion causes; Russia on the other hand must see if an invasion and occupation would be worth the cost.